Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-27 2.389091 2.536755 2.698333 2.890227 3.114664 3.372556 3.697138
2025-08-03 2.236502 2.419422 2.628457 2.889845 3.215580 3.620000 4.182395
2025-08-10 2.089531 2.283217 2.509888 2.801804 3.179723 3.672763 4.407692
2025-08-17 2.000730 2.204469 2.447730 2.769096 3.199597 3.787967 4.728333
2025-08-24 1.931971 2.143091 2.399324 2.745122 3.222201 3.902096 5.064084
2025-08-31 1.879126 2.096794 2.364821 2.733554 3.256351 4.032044 5.452334
2025-09-07 1.845251 2.071278 2.353726 2.750123 3.328737 4.226534 6.011183
2025-09-14 1.766464 1.985166 2.259257 2.645467 3.212563 4.100760 5.898427
2025-09-21 1.737334 1.960896 2.244123 2.649221 3.257582 4.245586 6.396457
2025-09-28 1.688706 1.909547 2.190632 2.595292 3.209062 4.222350 6.506231
2025-10-05 1.686549 1.917871 2.216508 2.655177 3.341713 4.537412 7.581564
2025-10-12 1.694664 1.939463 2.260691 2.743807 3.529139 4.993955 9.458925
2025-10-19 1.670071 1.918467 2.247554 2.749536 3.584859 5.213945 10.904600
2025-10-26 1.646453 1.897654 2.233338 2.752013 3.634098 5.430269 12.732113
2025-11-02 1.599180 1.843483 2.170093 2.675082 3.534867 5.289660 12.485933
2025-11-09 1.570074 1.813092 2.139458 2.647529 3.522781 5.352716 13.617086
2025-11-16 1.545027 1.787450 2.114578 2.627550 3.522482 5.443889 15.209222
2025-11-23 1.524763 1.767708 2.097341 2.618588 3.541473 5.587021 17.823985
2025-11-30 1.513302 1.759566 2.096274 2.635062 3.609489 5.874536 24.324182
2025-12-07 1.469660 1.706220 2.028369 2.540675 3.456930 5.533658 19.722295
2025-12-14 1.456737 1.694995 2.021364 2.545123 3.497359 5.737768 25.848862
2025-12-21 1.428920 1.662629 1.982765 2.496522 3.430572 5.628188 25.354716
2025-12-28 1.432195 1.673314 2.007210 2.552278 3.574974 6.170077 74.526342